A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
